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Industrial ECM Year-End Update & Outlook

Baird’s Industrial Equity Capital Markets team reflects on key equity issuance themes and market trends in 2024 and implications for the market in 2025. Baird’s top leaders share their perspectives on new issuance expectations, PE-backed activity and outlook for next year below.

Looking Back on 2024

IPO activity was tepid in 2024 despite strong market performance as issuers opted to wait until the Fed began its easing cycle and election uncertainty cleared
A handful of large, sponsor-backed assets came to market in 2024, including StandardAero, OneStream and Amer Sports, performing well in the aftermarket and paving the way for a ramp up in activity in 2025
Sponsors took advantage of strong equity performance throughout the year by monetizing investments as more than 30% of follow-on offerings included a secondary component, above the 5-year median of 24% (’19-’23)
Baird’s ECM and Syndicate teams were able to successfully execute numerous offerings at attractive prices to our issuing clients, inside of market precedents, while also generating significant buyer interest and healthy market trading through unique distribution capabilities, creating a win-win scenario

Active money managers continue to rely on Baird’s 12 Industrial research analysts, covering over 220 stocks, to help with alpha generation. Also, our Industrial ECM business has been a contributor to strong performance as Baird's Industrial bookrun deals have outperformed other Industrial equity offerings by more than 2x this year.

Jon Langenfeld, Head of Global Equities
PE-backed private companies hosted at Baird’s 2024 Global Industrial Conference received extremely positive feedback from institutional investors looking to put money to work in high quality assets that will be coming to market

Investors are testing the quality and readiness of management teams along with durability of the business relative to public alternatives. It’s a great opportunity for private companies and their sponsors to collect feedback from some of the largest public Institutional money managers participating in the premier Industrial conference. Investors also benefit from early exposure to relevant companies in their coverage universe, better understanding of market trends and competitive landscape and opportunity to build a track record with the company. No company should be a surprise or unknown at the time of the IPO launch.

Justin Holsen, Managing Director, Industrial Equity Capital Markets

2025 Outlook: Baird Leadership Soundbites

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Jason Trennert
Chairman & CEO, Strategas

“We’re hearing more excitement about the prospects for deregulation and the productivity gains associated with the newly-formed DOGE than there is fear about tariffs. We expect a marked increase in deal activity and capital investment in 2025. This, in our view, will more than offset a decline in government deficit spending.”

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Jon Langenfeld
Head of Global Equities

“Our buyside clients have expressed significant appetite for IPOs and follow-ons in 2025, and are preparing to deploy significant capital to generate excess returns, whether it's providing growth capital or liquidity to existing holders.”

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Chris Verrone
Head of Technical & Macro Research, Strategas

“As the calendar turns to 2025, the equity markets continue to express comfort with the underlying economic backdrop. In particular, the ongoing leadership from the Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors collectively express the persistence of a pro-cyclical tilt. Additionally, benign credit conditions and stable interest rates are supportive for risk appetite into the New Year.”

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Joe Packee and Mike Lindemann
Co-Heads of Global Industrial Investment Banking

“Our industrial clients, along with their PE owners, have shown strong interest in the public exit alternative, particularly those with substantial size and scale ($300M+ EBITDA). These clients have consistently met or exceeded performance expectations, reinforcing the IPO appeal. We also have several large clients strategically positioned in high-growth sectors, including data centers, electrical grid infrastructure, energy transition, automation and defense technology. These clients recognize the market premiums awarded to public peers and view public listings as an avenue to access capital for organic growth and M&A opportunities.”

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Justin Holsen
Managing Director, Industrial Equity Capital Markets

“Building off successful transactions in 2024, a healthy market backdrop and comparable valuations, we’ve seen a significant increase in conversations and preparation for offerings in the next two years. The dual track is no longer just a threat of going public but will be a reality for many clients in the coming quarters. We expect sponsors to take advantage of open market windows sooner rather than later, knowing that ultimate liquidity will come 2-3 years post IPO and will benefit from strong company performance in the public domain.”

2024 Baird Industrial ECM Highlights

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Bookrunner on ~70% of Industrial transactions in 2024

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>$5B in Capital Raised

~50% of transactions were secondary

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22% Median Offer-to-Current for Baird bookrun deals1

Leading Equity Underwriting Franchise Since 20182

Select 2024 Baird Industrial Transactions

 

1As of December 13, 2024

2Dealogic Industrial offerings as of December 13, 2024. Excludes ADRs, closed-end funds, SPACs, deals less than $15 million, Mining and Meta & Steel issuers and bought deals.