Markets & the Economy: Tariff Whipsaw
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Markets that spent two years anticipating a recession that never came took 2 days to price in surging odds of a recession that might come by invitation. A tariff off-ramp or ditch ahead? How do we navigate the markets ‘new normal’?
Add it to the ETF Line Up
New Launches: (week ending 4/11) quiet week for new funds 1 highlight
XXRP: Leveraged 2x XRP ETF launched by Teucrium despite Spot XRP ETF still pending approval- 1st time a new subcategory is kicked off by a leveraged product
- Saw $5m in volume on Day 1 (and continued big numbers for Day two-four)~ that puts it in approx. top 5% of new ETF launches (although 200x less than King IBIT) this fund is finding an audience quickly
New Filings: Defiance, Dogecoin, BlackRock
Defiance just filed for a MicroStrategy Double Short ETF~ which will short both the 2x long and 2x short MSTR ETFs in order to profit in the decay –1st of its kind New Flavor of Hot Sauce!
New filing for a Dogecoin ETF from 21Shares
iShares filed for an S&P 500 ex SP 100 ETF
ETF Check Up: Flow Show, Q1 Recap, SPY, QQQ
Smart-beta/factors ETFs shine in years like this, 61% of them currently beating SPX
- Last 2 years only 15% & 18% of them did; because most wired to include fundamentals so tend to have value tilt, less Mag 7
Thematic having a rough go w only 32% beating
ETF flows reach new record…
- Q1 brought in $296B (eclipsing the previous 1st QTR record of $248B set in 2021)
- European ETFs saw the 2nd highest inflows ever amid tariff concerns
- Inflation-sensitive assets like Gold drew major investment flows~ Gold ETFs took in $12B in the 1st quarter
Great chart showing SPY volume (aka The People’s Fear Gauge)…ended up at $111B on 4/4, 2nd most ever after Covid! When the going gets tough ETFs get going…
3rd best day ever for QQQ in its 26yr old life on 4/9, a hair behind 10/13/08, although neither holds a candle to 1/3/01 when it went up +17%
